Exit polls for the legislative assembly elections in West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Puducherry have been released, indicating possible electoral trends across the five regions. These projections are based on estimates, and the final results are scheduled to be declared on 4 May.
In West Bengal, exit polls indicate a closely contested election. Several surveys show the Bharatiya Janata Party ahead, while the incumbent All India Trinamool Congress remains in a competitive position. Some estimates project the Bharatiya Janata Party winning more than 140 seats, potentially placing it close to forming a government in the state for the first time, while the All India Trinamool Congress is estimated to secure around 130 seats. Close contests are indicated in both South Bengal and North Bengal.
According to P-MARQ, the Bharatiya Janata Party is projected to win 150–175 seats, the All India Trinamool Congress 118–138, and others 2–6. POLL DIARY projects the Bharatiya Janata Party at 142–172 seats, the All India Trinamool Congress at 99–127, and others at 5–9. Chanakya Strategy estimates the Bharatiya Janata Party at 150–160 seats, the All India Trinamool Congress at 130–140, and others at 6–10. PEOPLE’S PULSE projects the All India Trinamool Congress at 177–187 seats, the Bharatiya Janata Party at 95–100, and others at 1–4.
Political responses have followed the release of these projections. Abhishek Banerjee rejected claims made by the Bharatiya Janata Party and expressed confidence in his party’s victory, while leaders of the Bharatiya Janata Party have stated that they will form the government.
In Assam, exit polls indicate a return of the Bharatiya Janata Party to power. Under the leadership of Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, the party is projected to secure between 80 and 100 seats.
According to AXIS MY INDIA, the Bharatiya Janata Party is projected at 88–100 seats and the Indian National Congress at 24–36. PEOPLE’S PULSE estimates the Bharatiya Janata Party at 68–72 and the Indian National Congress at 22–26. VOTE VIBE projects the Bharatiya Janata Party at 90–100 and the Indian National Congress at 23–33. P-MARQ estimates the Bharatiya Janata Party at 82–94 and the Indian National Congress at 30–40. JVC projects the Bharatiya Janata Party at 88–101 and the Indian National Congress at 23–33.
The Indian National Congress is projected to be limited to around 25–35 seats. Vote share estimates also indicate a lead for the Bharatiya Janata Party, suggesting the possibility of the party retaining power in the state.
In Tamil Nadu, exit polls indicate that the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam alliance is ahead, while the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam alliance is projected to trail.
MATRIZE projects the DMK alliance at 122–132 seats, the AIADMK alliance at 87–110, TVK at 10–12, and others at 0–6. AXIS MY INDIA projects TVK at 98–120, the DMK alliance at 92–110, and the AIADMK alliance at 22–32. P-MARQ estimates the DMK alliance at 125–145, the AIADMK alliance at 65–85, TVK at 16–26, and others at 1–6. PEOPLE’S PULSE projects the DMK alliance at 125–145, the AIADMK alliance at 65–80, TVK at 18–24, and others at 2–6. Chanakya Strategy estimates the DMK alliance at 145–160, the AIADMK alliance at 50–65, TVK at 0, and others at 18–26.
Actor Vijay’s party TVK has also drawn attention in this election, with some exit polls projecting it to secure a notable number of seats.
In Kerala, exit polls indicate a possible change in government. The United Democratic Front is projected to lead, while the incumbent Left Democratic Front is estimated to trail. The United Democratic Front is projected to secure more than 70 seats, which would be sufficient for a majority. The Bharatiya Janata Party is projected to have limited success.
In Puducherry, exit polls indicate a clear lead for the National Democratic Alliance. The alliance is projected to win between 16 and 20 seats, which would secure a majority. The Congress–DMK alliance is projected to win fewer seats, reducing its prospects of forming the government.
