India’s festive season is approaching its peak, with shopping activity picking up ahead of Dhanteras, Diwali and the wedding season. Demand for gold and silver jewellery typically increases during this period.
Gold prices declined marginally on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX), while spot gold and US gold futures also recorded losses in international markets. The price movements have drawn attention from buyers and investors ahead of the festive season, as market participants assess whether gold prices could decline further or reach new record levels in the coming days.
According to available market data, gold on the MCX was trading at Rs 1,46,482 per 10 grams, down 0.03%. The previous trading session’s closing price was Rs 1,46,519 per 10 grams.
In international markets, spot gold fell 0.3% to $4,128.92 per ounce. US gold futures for December delivery also declined 0.3%, with prices recorded at $4,148.50 per ounce.
Gold prices fluctuate regularly. In India, domestic prices are influenced by international market rates, the rupee-dollar exchange rate, import duties, Goods and Services Tax (GST) and local demand. Jewellery buyers should check the latest rates in their respective cities and applicable making charges before making a purchase.
Global economic conditions, interest rate expectations and geopolitical developments can influence gold prices. Tensions in West Asia and concerns over potential disruptions to energy supplies can also affect investor decisions.
Regional tensions intensified following attacks linked to Yemen’s Houthi rebels and claims that Saudi Arabian energy facilities and airports had been targeted. Such developments can raise concerns about crude oil supply and prices. However, no single event can be identified as the sole reason for a decline in gold prices.
An increase in crude oil prices can raise transportation and production costs, adding to inflationary pressures. Central banks may consequently adopt a cautious approach towards interest rate cuts. Higher interest rates can make interest-bearing assets more attractive to investors, while gold does not generate regular interest income. This can put pressure on demand for gold and its prices.
At the same time, gold is also viewed as a safe-haven asset during periods of economic uncertainty and geopolitical risk. Its price can therefore move in either direction depending on prevailing market conditions.
Demand for gold coins, bars and jewellery generally increases in India during Dhanteras and Diwali. The subsequent wedding season may also support demand. Strong domestic demand could limit a substantial decline in prices, although it does not guarantee an increase.
According to market analyst Anuj Gupta’s estimate, gold prices in international markets could reach $4,600 per ounce. Based on this estimate, domestic gold prices could rise to Rs 1,60,000-Rs 1,65,000 per 10 grams by Diwali or the end of the year.
Separately, Ventura Securities’ reported gold price outlook estimates a potential range of Rs 1,50,000-Rs 1,65,000 per 10 grams ahead of Diwali 2026.
These figures represent market estimates and are not guaranteed price targets or returns.
