Exit polls for the assembly elections in West Bengal, Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Puducherry have been released following the completion of voting in these states and the Union Territory. Political parties and voters are awaiting indications of potential government formation ahead of the official results scheduled to be announced on 4 May.
Exit polls are based on post-voting surveys and are not final results, but they indicate electoral trends and voter preferences.
In West Bengal, where voting was conducted in two phases with over 92 percent turnout, the 294-member assembly requires 148 seats for a majority. Exit poll estimates show a close contest between the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Trinamool Congress, with different surveys presenting varying projections. P-Mark estimates the BJP at 150–175 seats and TMC at 118–138, while Matrize projects BJP at 146–161 and TMC at 125–140. People’s Pulse projects TMC at 177–187 and BJP at 95–110, and Chanakya Strategies estimates BJP at 150–160 and TMC at 130–140.
In Assam, where polling for the 126-member assembly was held in a single phase and the majority mark is 64, most exit polls indicate a lead for the National Democratic Alliance led by the Bharatiya Janata Party. Axis My India projects the BJP alliance at 88–100 seats, JVC at 88–101, P-Mark at 82–94, and Matrize at 85–95. The opposition alliance led by the Indian National Congress is projected to secure between 20 and 40 seats.
In Kerala, where the 140-member assembly requires 71 seats for a majority, most exit polls indicate a lead for the United Democratic Front. Axis My India projects UDF at 78–90 seats, P-Mark at 71–79, Matrize at 70–75, and People’s Pulse at 75–85. The incumbent Left Democratic Front is projected to secure between 49 and 69 seats. Limited gains are projected for the Bharatiya Janata Party.
In Tamil Nadu, voting was conducted for all 234 seats, with the majority mark at 118. Most exit polls project a lead for the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam alliance. P-Mark estimates the alliance at 125–145 seats, Matrize at 122–132, People’s Pulse at 125–145, and Chanakya Strategies at 145–160. Axis My India presents a different projection, estimating the TVK at 98–120 seats.
In Puducherry, which has a 30-member assembly with a majority mark of 16, exit polls indicate a lead for the Bharatiya Janata Party-led alliance. Axis My India projects 16–20 seats for the BJP alliance, while People’s Pulse estimates 16–19. The Congress alliance is projected to secure between 6 and 12 seats.
Exit polls are conducted through voter surveys and sample-based methodologies after voting concludes. Experts state that regional factors, late voter swings, local issues, and rural-urban voting patterns can influence outcomes. The Election Commission and analysts advise awaiting official results for confirmation.
