On Tuesday, July 15, 2025, the Indian Rupee showed a slight strengthening in the foreign exchange market. In early trading, the rupee opened at 85.97 against the US dollar, considered to be 2 paise ber compared to the previous trading day. Earlier on Monday, the rupee had closed at 85.92 after falling by 12 paise. This indicates that the rupee has found some relief after two days of decline.
Support from Easing Inflation and Expectations of Rate Cuts
According to currency experts, the recent moderation in retail and wholesale inflation rates has raised hopes among investors that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may cut interest rates in the near future. This creates possibilities for increased liquidity and strengthening of the currency.
However, the continued selling by foreign investors and global uncertainties have not fully supported the rupee's rise.
Minor Weakness in the Dollar Index as Well
The dollar index, which shows the strength of the dollar against six major global currencies, fell by 0.04 percent on Tuesday to 98.04. This softening in the dollar index indicates some relief for the rupee and other emerging market currencies.
However, the dollar's movement remains unstable due to the slowdown in global economic activities and growing concerns regarding interest rates from the US.
Activity in the Interbanking Market
On Tuesday, the rupee started at 85.97 in the interbank foreign currency exchange but soon fell to 85.92, the same as Monday's closing level. This indicates that the rupee is currently in a state of stability against the dollar, but the next phase of rise or fall will depend on external signals.
What Foreign Money Traders Say
Foreign exchange traders believe that the rupee's rise cannot be considered completely reliable due to the uncertainty of India-US trade talks and the continuous withdrawal of foreign funds.
Especially before the announcement of deals or collaborations of American companies and financial institutions in India, the market appears to be a bit stagnant.
FIIs' Selling Remains a Cause of Pressure
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) are continuously withdrawing funds from domestic markets. On Monday, FIIs made a net sale of ₹1,614.32 crore, indicating pressure on the rupee. Investors believe that capital outflow from India may accelerate due to monetary tightening in the US and other Western countries.
Enthusiasm Seen in the Stock Market
There was an atmosphere of enthusiasm in the domestic stock markets on Tuesday. The BSE Sensex recorded a rise of 203.95 points in early trades and reached the level of 82,457.41. The Nifty 50 also climbed 68.85 points to reach 25,151.15.
This rise is also being attributed to positive signals from the US markets and relief in domestic inflation data.
Support Also Received from Softening Crude Oil Prices
Internationally, Brent crude fell by 0.42 percent and reached $68.92 per barrel. For an import-dependent country like India, a fall in crude oil prices is a positive sign for the rupee. It reduces the current account deficit and supports the rupee.
Outlook
In the opinion of market experts, the current improvement in the rupee is somewhat a technical rebound. In the coming days, the rupee's trend will completely depend on global signals, foreign investment trends, and the progress of trade agreements.
Currently, the market is keeping an eye on India-US trade talks, the activities of FIIs, and the potential steps of the RBI. The rupee may remain stable against the dollar for some time, but any unexpected global event could also lead to sharp fluctuations again.
