Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma's statement has further intensified the debate surrounding Assam's demographics. He claimed that by 2041, the Muslim population could be equal to the Hindu population if the current population growth rate continues.
Guwahati: Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma has sparked discussion in political and social circles with a significant statement regarding the state's demographics. He has claimed that if the current population growth rate continues, the Hindu and Muslim populations in Assam could be nearly equal by the year 2041.
CM Sarma clarified that this is not a personal opinion, but rather a conclusion based on government census reports and statistical projections. His statement comes at a time when population imbalance in the state, particularly on religious grounds, has become a sensitive issue.
What did Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma say?
Chief Minister Sarma said, "This is not my opinion, but is based on the 2011 census data. At that time, the Muslim population in Assam was approximately 34 percent. If we remove about 3 percent of indigenous Assamese Muslims from this, the remaining 31 percent is the population of migrant Muslims. If we look at the estimated population rate for 2021, 2031 and 2041, the ratio of Hindu and Muslim populations may be almost equal."
2011 Census: Population Structure of Assam
- Total Population: 3.12 crore
- Hindu Population: Approximately 1.92 crore (61.47%)
- Muslim Population: Approximately 1.07 crore (34.22%)
- According to the BJP, the number of Muslim-majority districts in Assam increased from 6 until 2001, to 9 in 2011, and has now reached 11 by 2025.
Muslim-Majority Districts: 2001 vs 2011
Muslim-majority districts in 2001 (out of a total of 23 districts)
- Dhubri (74.29%)
- Barpeta (59.37%)
- Goalpara (53.71%)
- Nagaon (51%)
- Karimganj (52.3%)
- Hailakandi (57.63%)
Muslim-majority districts in 2011 (out of a total of 27 districts)
- Dhubri (79.67%)
- Barpeta (70.74%)
- Goalpara (57.52%)
- Morigaon (52.56%)
- Nagaon (55.36%)
- Karimganj (56.36%)
- Hailakandi (60.31%)
- Bongaigaon (50.22%)
- Darrang (64.34%)
BJP's Stance
BJP leaders have repeatedly raised the issue of the impact of illegal migration in Assam and the resulting population imbalance. The party says that the state's social structure is becoming unbalanced, which could change cultural and political equations. According to CM Sarma, if demographic trends continue as they are, a 'demographic inversion' could occur in Assam, meaning the majority Hindu community could become a minority.
Some population experts believe that the population growth rate is now stabilizing in the Muslim community due to improved education and health services. Meanwhile, some sociologists argue that such claims can promote social polarization; therefore, the interpretation of data should be balanced and responsible.
