India’s crude oil import pattern recorded a shift in February 2026 amid rising tensions in the global energy market, with Iraq emerging as the largest supplier, replacing Russia.
According to recent data, India’s crude oil imports from Russia declined by approximately 32 percent in February to around 1 million barrels per day. In contrast, imports from Iraq increased to about 1.18 million barrels per day, making it the top supplier for the month.
Imports from Saudi Arabia also rose to approximately 998,000 barrels per day. With these changes, the share of Middle Eastern countries in India’s total crude oil imports increased to around 59 percent. During the same period, Brazil ranked as the fourth-largest supplier to India.
Estimates indicate a potential increase in crude oil imports from Russia in March 2026. Energy experts project imports could rise to between 1.8 million and 2.2 million barrels per day. The expected increase is attributed to supply pressures linked to escalating tensions in West Asia and disruptions in vessel movement through the Strait of Hormuz, which have affected supply flows.
Additionally, the United States provided partial relief on certain restrictions related to Russian oil imports for India on March 6, further supporting the likelihood of increased imports. Lower pricing and consistent supply continue to position Russia as a key component of India’s energy procurement strategy.
Saudi Arabian officials have indicated that crude oil prices could exceed $180 per barrel if the conflict linked to Iran and the broader energy crisis persist until the end of April. An international report noted that ongoing geopolitical tensions and conflict are disrupting oil supply, contributing to market uncertainty.
The escalation of conflict in the Middle East has added volatility to the global energy market, raising concerns among both oil-producing and importing countries. In the most recent trading session, crude oil prices declined marginally after measures were taken by the United States and its allies to manage supply constraints. Brent crude prices fell by more than 1 percent to approximately $107 per barrel.
