Bihar exit polls predict the NDA's return to power. 10 out of 11 surveys show the NDA securing a majority. Axis My India has indicated a close contest. The actual results will be announced on November 14.
Bihar Exit Polls: The results of the Bihar Assembly election exit polls have been released, with most surveys indicating the NDA's return to power. Out of a total of 11 exit polls, 10 have shown the NDA alliance securing a majority, while one exit poll has suggested a neck-and-neck contest. This forecast has heightened both anticipation and excitement regarding the election outcomes.
Bihar Assembly Elections Held in Two Phases
Voting for a total of 243 seats in the Bihar Assembly took place in two phases. The first phase of polling was on November 6, and the second phase was on November 11. Now, the people of the state are eagerly awaiting November 14, when the official results will be declared.
This election was largely seen as a direct contest between the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance). The NDA contested under the leadership of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, while the Mahagathbandhan was led by Tejashwi Yadav.
NDA Government Predicted by Most Exit Polls
Surveys released after the conclusion of polling, such as Matrize, P-Mark, JVC Poll, Peoples Pulse, Peoples Insight, Chanakya Strategies, and NDTV Poll of Polls, have shown the NDA forming the government with a majority.
According to these surveys, the NDA is projected to win between 125 and 170 seats, which is sufficient for a clear majority in Bihar's 243-member Assembly. In contrast, the Mahagathbandhan may be limited to 90 to 115 seats.
Axis My India Offers a Different Projection
Amidst all these predictions, the Axis My India survey presents a somewhat different picture. According to this survey, the NDA might fall slightly short of the majority mark in Bihar. Axis My India has projected the NDA to win between 121 and 140 seats, the Mahagathbandhan between 98 and 118 seats, and Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party to be limited to 0 to 2 seats.
A majority in the Bihar Assembly requires 122 seats. Therefore, if Axis My India's projection proves correct, the NDA could fall short of the majority by just one seat. This scenario makes the election results highly exciting.
Only a Two Percent Difference in Vote Share
According to Axis My India, the vote share difference in Bihar is very narrow. The survey estimates the NDA to secure 43 percent of the votes and the Mahagathbandhan 41 percent. This means there is only a two percent difference between the two.
This narrow margin will determine who will govern Bihar. If this prediction holds true, the results could be extremely close, with contests in many seats potentially going down to the very last vote.
NDA Predicted Clear Majority in Several Surveys
Several other exit polls have given the NDA a clear majority. According to CNX, the NDA could reach between 150 and 170 seats, which is more than a two-thirds majority. This projection suggests a b comeback for the NDA in state politics.
Meanwhile, Vote Vibe's survey has projected the NDA to win between 125 and 145 seats and the Mahagathbandhan between 95 and 115 seats. These figures clearly indicate that most surveys are predicting the formation of an NDA government.
Comparison with 2020 Results
In the Bihar Assembly elections of 2020, the RJD emerged as the single largest party, securing 75 seats. At that time, the NDA alliance collectively won 125 seats, with the BJP winning 74 and the JDU 43.
This time's exit polls suggest that the JDU's performance might improve, while the BJP could face a loss of some seats. According to the surveys, the JDU is projected to win between 56 and 62 seats, and the BJP between 50 and 56 seats. The Congress, meanwhile, is estimated to be limited to 17 to 21 seats.
A Ray of Hope for Mahagathbandhan
Although most surveys indicate an NDA victory, the Mahagathbandhan is not entirely disheartened. According to Axis My India's figures, if the Mahagathbandhan achieves its upper projection of 118 seats, it would come very close to the majority mark.
Tejashwi Yadav has dismissed the exit polls, stating that the people of Bihar desire change this time, and the actual results will prove the NDA's projections wrong. He has claimed that, similar to 2020, many exit polls will be proven incorrect this time as well.
Limited Impact of Jan Suraaj Party
There was considerable discussion among the public regarding Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party, but according to exit polls, the party's impact is expected to be very limited. Almost all surveys have shown it securing between 0 and 2 seats. This implies that the Jan Suraaj Party is currently not in a position to play a decisive role in Bihar politics.
Voters Played a Crucial Role
Voters showed significant enthusiasm in this election. Over 60 percent of people exercised their franchise in the two-phase polling. Women's participation was also notable. Political analysts believe that the votes of youth and women could decisively influence the outcomes this time.
Lessons from Previous Exit Polls
In Bihar's 2020 Assembly elections, several exit polls also proved incorrect. At that time, almost all surveys had predicted a lead for the Mahagathbandhan, but the actual results saw the NDA take the lead. This time too, political experts are advising caution, stating that the final decision will only become clear after the vote counting on November 14.
Political Buzz Intensifies Ahead of Results
Following the release of exit polls, political activity in Bihar has intensified. While NDA leaders are touting this as proof of public support, the opposition is dismissing it as a game of numbers. All parties are preparing for potential outcomes at their respective levels. There is heightened activity at the offices of political parties in Patna. The BJP and JDU have begun discussing their strategy, while the RJD has also held meetings with its senior leaders.
Public Eyes on November 14
Now, the people of Bihar are focused on November 14, when the real results will be declared. Exit polls have only offered a preliminary estimate of the picture, but the final decision will be determined by the public's votes.
If the NDA secures a majority, Nitish Kumar could once again take the oath as Chief Minister. However, if Axis My India's projection proves correct, the political equations in the state could also be overturned.
