The Ukraine war has once again intensified international pressure on Russia. The US and NATO are now warning countries that are buying oil from Russia at discounted prices. India, which has been purchasing oil from Russia in large quantities for the past three years, now finds itself in a difficult position. Former US President Donald Trump and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte have threatened to impose tariffs of up to 100% on India, China, and Brazil. This warning directly targets countries that are fulfilling their energy needs by purchasing oil from Russia.
India Got an Opportunity to Buy Cheap Oil from Russia
When the Ukraine war began in 2022 and Western countries stopped buying oil from Russia, India seized the opportunity. India began buying crude oil from Russia at a significant discount, which helped control inflation in the country and strengthened the economy. According to data, India meets about 85% of its total energy needs through crude oil imports, and Russia has now become its largest oil supplier.
What Will Be the Impact If Purchases from Russia Stop?
Now that a warning has been issued to impose a 100% tariff on oil purchases from Russia, the question arises as to what impact this will have on India's energy policy. Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri recently stated that India is not afraid of threats from the US. He also mentioned that if oil purchases from Russia are stopped, crude oil prices could rise to $120 to $130 per barrel, which would affect the global economy.
Countries Around the World Are Also Buying Oil from Russia
India is not the only country buying oil from Russia. China, Turkey, and Brazil are also importing crude oil from Russia. According to a CREA report, China is buying more oil from Russia than India. In terms of figures, China takes about 47% of Russia's crude oil, India takes 38%, while Turkey and European countries also import oil through third parties. This means that despite Western sanctions, the Russian oil market is alive.
Why Will India Be Most Affected?
This issue is more sensitive for India because Russia has now become India's largest oil supplier. In 2021-22, Russia's share was only 2.1%, but by 2024-25, it has reached 35.1%. This means that India now meets more than one-third of its oil needs from Russia. If this supply suddenly stops, India will have to buy expensive oil from Gulf countries or the US, which will increase the import bill and could lead to a spike in inflation.
Is This Trump's Strategy?
Some experts believe that this warning from the US may just be a strategy to put pressure on Russia. Trump has previously initiated talks with Russia. Some reports indicate that Trump and Putin have had phone conversations where a peace agreement was discussed, but Russia is still attacking Ukraine on the ground. In such a situation, the threat of secondary sanctions is being seen more as a political ploy.
Oil Minister's Reaction Clarified India's Stance
Petroleum Minister Hardeep Puri has made it clear that India will prioritize its own interests. He said that the world's economy relies on Russian oil, and India's purchases have kept global prices stable. He believes that if India also stops taking oil from Russia, prices will go out of control.
Global Oil Supply Will Be Affected
If major buyers like India and China stop taking oil from Russia, there could be a massive upheaval in the global oil market. Russia accounts for about 10% of the world's total oil supply. If this portion disappears from the market, the remaining countries will not be able to fill that void, and prices will skyrocket.
Will Trump's Warning Also Harm the US?
If a 100% tax is imposed on India and China, and these countries start buying oil from the US, prices there will also increase. This could be a shock to American consumers, which could have political repercussions for Trump. Several reports have stated that many European countries are still buying oil from Russia through third countries, which reflects this double standard.
The Oil Game Has Now Become Part of Global Politics
In today's era, crude oil is not just a source of energy but has also become a weapon of political pressure. On one hand, Russia uses it to put pressure on its opponents, while on the other hand, organizations like the US and NATO are using it as a means of punishment. India is a key player in this entire game, not only fulfilling its own needs but also playing a role in maintaining balance in the global energy market.
