During the recent conflict with Israel, Russia openly supported Iran and bly criticized both Israel's attacks and potential US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites.
Tehran: Significant changes may be on the horizon for Iran's defense sector. Iran, having previously reached an agreement with Russia for the Su-35 fighter jet, appears to be shifting its focus towards China's J-10C fighter jet, leaving Russia behind. This is the same fighter jet that Pakistan has already inducted into its air force.
Iran has long been serious about modernizing its air force, but following the recent Israeli attacks and US drone strikes, it has deemed its needs more urgent. The Iranian Air Force still employs 40-50 year old jets like the F-4 Phantom and MiG-29, whereas Israel possesses advanced fighter jets like the F-16 and F-35. Iran fears that its older technology would not withstand another Israeli attack.
Why the shift away from the Su-35?
Iran had already finalized a deal with Russia for the 4.5th generation Su-35, but according to sources, Russia has been continuously delaying the delivery of these aircraft. Due to the Ukraine war, Russia is under immense pressure on its own resources, which is why it is unable to prioritize Iran. In this situation, Iranian military officials believe that such a delay could prove fatal for them. This is why China's J-10C is now becoming Iran's priority.
J-10C vs. Su-35: Which is more powerful?
In terms of technical specifications, the Su-35 is a heavyweight twin-engine fighter with a tremendous payload capacity and better thrust. On the other hand, the J-10C is a single-engine, medium-weight multirole fighter equipped with a modern AESA radar. Its missiles — PL-10 and PL-15 — are adept at hitting targets over long distances. The J-10C is considered more advanced in terms of radar and avionics, while the Su-35 has better payload and dogfighting capabilities. Experts believe that if Iran needs to quickly strengthen its defense capabilities, the J-10C can fulfill its needs more rapidly.
China's Advantage, Russia's Setback
If Iran formally finalizes the order for the J-10C, it will be a major setback for Russia, as Russia had openly supported Iran during the Israeli attacks and also advocated for the protection of its nuclear sites. But the delay in delivery and a Russia entangled in the Ukraine war has perhaps weakened Iran's trust. This could prove to be a big opportunity for China in defense diplomacy.
Interestingly, Pakistan has already inducted the J-10C into its air force and has had good experiences. Pakistani pilots have called it an excellent alternative to the American F-16. This is the reason why Iran is also considering prioritizing this jet for its rapid delivery and lower cost.
Turbulence in the Defense Market
If Iran signs a deal with China for the J-10C, it will not only be a major setback for Russia but will also create turbulence in the global defense market. Western countries are already keeping a close eye on Iran's military modernization, and with the arrival of the J-10C, the strike capability of its air force could increase many times over. This will also necessitate changes in the strategies of Israel and the United States.
