According to NASA, there is a 4.3% probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 impacting the Moon in 2032, but Earth remains entirely safe.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is once again the focus of discussion among space scientists. Based on new data from the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), NASA has updated the potential impact figures for this asteroid. Scientists now estimate that this space rock could potentially impact the Moon in December 2032, with a probability of 4.3%, slightly higher than the previously estimated 3.8%. The most significant reassurance is that Earth is completely safe from this potential impact. NASA has clarified that there is currently no threat to Earth from this asteroid and that any impact would only affect the Moon.
JWST Data Underpins New Calculations
According to NASA's report, the James Webb Space Telescope used its near-infrared camera to conduct detailed monitoring of asteroid 2024 YR4. This allowed scientists to assess its orbital path with 20% greater accuracy than before. This data led to the prediction that it could potentially approach the Moon in December 2032, although the probability remains very low.
What is 2024 YR4?
This asteroid is approximately the size of a ten-story building and was first discovered in December 2023. Initially, there was a 3.1% chance of it impacting Earth, the highest impact probability ever recorded for a large asteroid.
This drew global attention in early 2024 as its projected path pointed towards the Pacific Ocean, parts of South America, Africa, and Asia. If it had indeed impacted Earth, there was a possibility of broken windows or minor structural damage in some areas.
The Risk of Earth Impact Has Been Ruled Out
However, based on detailed calculations and data from telescopes worldwide conducted by February 2024, NASA ruled out the possibility of an Earth impact. Scientists now say the probability of this asteroid hitting Earth is less than 0.004%, essentially negligible.
Additional data gathered from locations such as Chile and Hawaii revealed that this asteroid originated from the main asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter and gradually approached Earth's orbit.
How Dangerous is a Lunar Impact?
Scientists have also downplayed concerns regarding a potential lunar impact. According to calculations led by Andy Rivkin of the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory, even if an impact occurs, it would not affect the Moon's orbit.
Pawan Kumar, a former astronomer at the Indian Institute of Astrophysics, believes that debris from such an impact would either adhere to the Moon's surface or gradually enter and disintegrate in Earth's atmosphere.
YR4 Will Be Visible Again in 2028
2024 YR4 is currently outside the visible range, but scientists predict it will reappear in telescopic view in 2028. This will provide another opportunity to study its structure, trajectory, and dynamics, providing further clarity on the potential events of 2032.
2024 YR4: A 'Real-Time Test'
Although this asteroid no longer poses a threat to Earth, it has served as a valuable exercise for global planetary defense systems. Pawan Kumar states, "2024 YR4 demonstrated how the world can handle a potential space threat – early detection, data collection, analysis, and the role of a global warning system were crucial."
