The presence of Jasupa in the Bihar Assembly Elections 2025 has increased the challenge for both NDA and Mahagathbandhan. Both alliances are engaged in strategies to protect their bholds and make inroads into rival territories, focusing on seat equations.
Patna. In the upcoming Bihar Assembly elections, both the NDA and Mahagathbandhan face the challenge of securing their bholds. The close contest last time and the presence of Jan Suraj Party (Jasupa) could make this election even tougher. The NDA needs to rectify its defeat in eight districts in the last election. Meanwhile, the Mahagathbandhan faces the challenge of avoiding vote division in the Seemanchal region.
The Battle to Infiltrate Strongholds
Both alliances are engaged in attempts to make inroads into rival bholds while also striving to protect their own. In the last election, the difference between the NDA and Mahagathbandhan was only 11,150 votes. This margin resulted in a difference of 15 seats. Therefore, a thorough strategic review and precise planning are essential for both sides.
NDA's Strategy
Electoral strategy is being formulated under the supervision of BJP within the NDA. Bihar has been divided into five zones – Patna, Magadh-Shahabad, Kosi-Seemanchal, Saran-Champaran, and Mithilanchal. Senior leaders and organizational general secretaries are shouldering special responsibilities in each zone. The NDA's goal is to strengthen its bholds and make inroads into rival territories.
The BJP has devised a strategy at the booth empowerment and assembly constituency levels. For this, approximately one hundred and fifty women leaders from the state are also going door-to-door, engaging with women and trying to win them over. These efforts are primarily focused on constituencies where the NDA won last time but now require extra vigilance.
Mahagathbandhan's Preparation
Senior leaders from Congress and RJD are also included as strategic advisors in the Mahagathbandhan. With the increasing influence of Jasupa and AIMIM in Seemanchal and Mithilanchal, the Mahagathbandhan needs to prevent the polarization of its votes. From an organizational perspective, Congress and RJD have deployed strategic teams in various regions to protect their bholds.
Previous Election Scenario
In the last three elections (2010, 2015, 2020), power did not remain stable between NDA and Mahagathbandhan. BJP dominated the Tirhut division, while the Kosi division became a JDU bhold. RJD remained b in Magadh-Saran, while Congress held influence in Seemanchal. The results from the Saran division in the last election made RJD the number one party.
Division-wise Analysis of Seats
The strategy for each division is crucial for both NDA and Mahagathbandhan. In Tirhut, NDA won 33 seats, and Mahagathbandhan won 16. In Saran, Mahagathbandhan took the lead while NDA secured only 9 seats. In Darbhanga, NDA won 22 seats, and Mahagathbandhan won 8. In other divisions too, protecting bholds and making inroads are priorities for both alliances.
The Challenge of Seemanchal and Shahabad
In the east, Seemanchal, and in the west, Shahabad have been challenging for the NDA. Last time, the NDA failed to open its account in four districts of Shahabad. The NDA also came up empty-handed in Seemanchal. This time, the BJP has adopted a dual strategy in Seemanchal and Shahabad. The Prime Minister and Union Ministers have increased public outreach through various programs.
Mahagathbandhan's Moves
The Mahagathbandhan, especially RJD and Congress, are focused on making inroads in Seemanchal and Mithilanchal. RJD is attempting to address social and cultural aspirations in Mithilanchal. Meanwhile, the NDA is trying to influence public sentiment through infrastructural development and nationalist ideology.
Polarization of Votes
The presence of Jasupa and AIMIM could lead to a fragmentation of votes. The Mahagathbandhan has tried to prove itself as a benefactor by vocally opposing the Waqf Act and SIR to gain the support of Muslim votes. Meanwhile, the NDA is strengthening its booth-level strategy and is ready to protect its bholds and make inroads into rival territories.
