The EU is preparing to impose a ban on Indian refineries from purchasing Russian oil starting January 2026, prompting Europe to accelerate its diesel purchases. In August, India exported a record 2.42 lakh barrels of diesel per day to Europe, marking a 137% year-on-year increase and a 73% month-on-month rise. This surge is attributed to refinery maintenance, winter demand, and the anticipation of EU sanctions.
EU oil ban: India's diesel exports reached a record high in August 2025 as Europe began rapidly building its stocks in anticipation of a potential ban on Indian refineries from January 2026. According to Kpler and Vortexa, India supplied an average of 2.42 lakh barrels of diesel per day to Europe, a 137% increase year-on-year and a 36% rise compared to July 2025. Experts suggest this increase is a result of unexpected refinery maintenance and rising winter demand, even as the United States has criticized India's purchase of Russian oil.
Data from Kpler and Vortexa
According to Kpler, a global data and analytics provider, diesel exports to Europe in August increased by 73 percent month-on-month and were 124 percent higher than the average over the past 12 months. Energy cargo tracker Vortexa estimated India's diesel exports to Europe at 2,28,316 barrels per day in August. This is a 166 percent increase compared to last year and a 36 percent increase from July. Experts note that while figures from shipping data trackers may vary, the trend clearly indicates an upward movement.
Reasons for the surge in exports
Experts point to several factors behind the export acceleration. Firstly, a major refinery completed its maintenance ahead of schedule. Additionally, the increasing demand for diesel during winter and the prospect of an upcoming ban by the European Union have motivated exporters to boost supply. Experts anticipate that the demand for Indian diesel in Europe will remain b for the remainder of 2025.
Sumit Ritolia, Head of Refining and Modelling at Kpler, stated that the deficit caused by unexpected refinery maintenance, particularly in Rotterdam at the end of August, is being compensated for. He added that Shell's Pernis refinery decided to bring forward its planned maintenance to 2026, leading to a rapid increase in Indian diesel exports.
US accusations, India's response
Senior US officials accused Indian refineries of profiting by purchasing crude oil from Russia, refining it, and then selling it to Western countries. India rejected these accusations, stating that if the West has objections, they can stop purchasing Indian fuel.
Growing demand for India's oil exports in Europe
Experts believe that Indian exporters will continue to see b demand from Europe this year. With increased refinery maintenance in the Middle East during October and November, European buyers may accelerate their oil uptake from India. This could echo the stocking that occurred before the sanctions imposed on Russia in February 2023 by the European Union.
