The India Meteorological Department has revised its forecast for the onset of the monsoon in Rajasthan, indicating that it is now likely to arrive around June 30 instead of the earlier estimate of June 25. According to meteorologists, the slowdown in monsoon progress is linked to the influence of the western jet stream and a weakened Arabian Sea branch of the monsoon.
The latest data and satellite analysis show that monsoon advancement has slowed, raising the possibility of a delay of nearly one week in its arrival over Rajasthan. Weather experts said weaker monsoon activity across several parts of the country has affected its overall progress.
According to recent figures, rainfall across India between June 4 and June 15 remained substantially below normal. During this period, the country received only 19.2 mm of rainfall against the average of 53.7 mm. This represents a deficit of about 64 percent compared with normal levels and reflects the current weak state of the monsoon.
Satellite images obtained by the weather department have also confirmed the slower pace of monsoon advancement. Under normal active monsoon conditions, dense cloud cover is visible across large parts of the country, but such conditions have not been observed this year.
The Arabian Sea branch, which supplies moisture to Rajasthan, has been particularly weak. As a result, cloud development has not reached expected levels despite the availability of moisture. Consequently, intense sunshine and hot winds continue to affect most parts of the state.
Meteorologists said the western jet stream has played a major role in slowing monsoon activity. This year, the jet stream has shifted south of its normal position, weakening the easterly winds that help sustain active monsoon conditions.
Experts noted that when westerly winds become more dominant, cloud formation and rainfall processes are affected. This has contributed to slower monsoon progress and lower-than-expected rainfall across several states.
The weather department said the current situation is not expected to persist. Weather models indicate that the influence of the jet stream may weaken in the coming days, allowing monsoon circulation to become active again and rainfall activity to increase.
According to experts, monsoon winds are expected to strengthen again over the next four to five days from the direction of Maharashtra, Karnataka and Chhattisgarh. This could accelerate the monsoon’s advance into Rajasthan. If conditions remain favourable, the monsoon may reach most parts of the state by the final week of June.
Several districts of Rajasthan continue to experience hot and humid conditions. The delayed arrival of the monsoon means residents may have to wait a few more days before weather conditions change.
However, the weather department expects temperatures to decline once rainfall begins toward the end of June. The arrival of the monsoon is also important for farmers, as the sowing of kharif crops depends largely on rainfall. Attention across the state is now focused on the revised expected arrival date of June 30.
