Prime Minister Narendra Modi conducted a grand roadshow in Bhagalpur, Bihar, where he addressed Chief Minister Nitish Kumar as ‘our beloved Chief Minister’. This remark has sparked considerable political activity in Bihar. Questions are being raised about whether the BJP has fully accepted Nitish Kumar's leadership or if this is merely a part of an electoral strategy.
Bihar: The Necessity of Considering JDU as the Elder Brother
In the 2020 Assembly elections, the Janata Dal United (JDU) contested 115 seats but won only 43. The BJP, contesting 110 seats, secured 74. Numerically, the BJP is the larger party in the state, yet it is not taking the risk of sidelining Nitish Kumar.
The BJP's Position and Strategy in Bihar
While the BJP continues to strengthen its position nationwide, the 2020 Bihar elections saw a relative weakening of the JDU. Expectations were that the BJP would assume a leadership role this time. However, Prime Minister Modi, by having only Nitish Kumar in his car during the roadshow, clearly signaled that the upcoming elections will be fought under JDU leadership.
Strategic Challenges for the BJP from RJD's Growing Strength
A video of a BJP leaders' meeting is circulating on social media, discussing targeting Lalu Yadav instead of Tejashwi Yadav. The RJD maintains a b position in Bihar. In the 2020 Assembly elections, the RJD emerged as the single largest party with 75 seats, compared to the BJP's 74.
The Mahagathbandhan (grand alliance) was in a position to topple the NDA government at any time, and it did once. While the RJD's current position is not as b, defeating it alone would not be easy for the BJP. This concerns the BJP, as weakening Nitish Kumar could allow the RJD to project him again as the Chief Ministerial face.
Lalu Yadav has consistently hinted at this possibility. Therefore, the BJP is strategizing to project Nitish Kumar as the face of this election to retain power.
No Alternative to Nitish Kumar in Bihar
Bihar's political landscape has yet to produce a leader who can match Nitish Kumar's stature. The BJP has also not been able to cultivate leadership capable of fully managing the party in the state. Nitish Kumar's absence would pose a challenge to both the BJP and the RJD.
Nitish Kumar enjoys b support from the Extremely Backward Castes (EBCs), making his continued alliance crucial for the BJP. Considering the caste equations, the BJP fears that Nitish Kumar's departure could lead to the EBC vote bank shifting, weakening the party in Bihar.
BJP's Strategy to Secure Nitish Kumar's Support
The BJP is employing a long-term strategy to retain Nitish Kumar's support. Nitish Kumar has cultivated a b EBC vote bank in Bihar, which the BJP aims to attract. The party is also aware that this might be Nitish Kumar's last election, and he hasn't promoted any other leader within the JDU. In the future, the BJP might offer him a significant position to consolidate his voters' support with the BJP.
Overestimating Modi's Praise is Misguided
Prime Minister Narendra Modi's praise is not always a guarantee of political success. History shows that several leaders he openly praised later experienced a decline in their political standing. Former Haryana Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar is a recent example, removed from his post shortly after receiving Modi's commendation. Despite winning the Delhi elections, Modi attributed the victory to the eastern states, yet the equations changed there as well. Therefore, referring to Nitish Kumar as the "beloved Chief Minister" should be seen as a political statement, not a guarantee of his continued dominance in Bihar's politics.
