The southwest monsoon has begun its withdrawal from several parts of the country, and its departure from Uttar Pradesh is also approaching. According to the India Meteorological Department, the withdrawal is expected to advance from the western parts towards central Uttar Pradesh before moving through Purvanchal and eventually ending monsoonal activity across the state. The latest assessment indicates that the monsoon could completely withdraw from Uttar Pradesh around October 10, with Sonbhadra likely to be the route of withdrawal from Purvanchal.
The weather department has begun updating the withdrawal process of the southwest monsoon across the country. The initial signs of withdrawal were observed from September 19, when monsoonal activity began retreating from western parts of Rajasthan. The withdrawal is then expected to progress towards Delhi, Haryana and western Uttar Pradesh. Weather assessments indicate that the monsoon could reach central Uttar Pradesh by around October 5 and then move out of the state through Purvanchal over the following days.
The route of the monsoon withdrawal in Uttar Pradesh is also significant from a weather perspective. The Sonbhadra region in Purvanchal has previously been associated with the entry and withdrawal of the monsoon in the state. As the monsoon retreats, atmospheric moisture will gradually decline and rainfall activity is expected to decrease. Mild coolness is likely to begin being felt during the morning and evening, marking what is commonly regarded as the beginning of the period of mild winter-like conditions.
The beginning of the monsoon withdrawal does not mean that rainfall will immediately stop completely across Uttar Pradesh. The latest weather forecast indicates the possibility of another spell of rain in eastern Uttar Pradesh after September 23. Between September 24 and 27, eastern Uttar Pradesh could experience heavy rainfall accompanied by thunderstorms and b winds. Rain is also possible in western Uttar Pradesh after September 25. As a result, rainfall could continue for several days during the withdrawal process.
According to the weather department, there is no warning for eastern Uttar Pradesh from September 21 to 23, while heavy rainfall and thunderstorms are expected from September 24 to 27. In western Uttar Pradesh, heavy rainfall along with thunderstorms and b winds could occur from September 25 to 27. This indicates that another spell of rain could occur in the state even as the monsoon withdrawal process has begun.
The coming days will also be important from a weather perspective for Varanasi and other districts of Purvanchal. Despite weakening monsoonal activity, weather systems developing over the Bay of Bengal could affect Uttar Pradesh. This is why the possibility of another spell of rain remains even after the withdrawal process has started. The possibility of a new spell of rain in eastern Uttar Pradesh from September 23 is linked to this changing weather pattern.
Monsoon arrival and withdrawal patterns have also shown some variation from normal this year. Purvanchal recorded adequate rainfall during the period of monsoonal activity. According to the report, rainfall performance remained around average through the middle of August and September. As the monsoon weakens, rainfall intensity and frequency are expected to gradually decline.
The most noticeable changes after the monsoon withdrawal will be in temperature and atmospheric conditions. Moisture accumulated in the atmosphere due to continuous rainfall and cloud cover will begin to decline. Humidity is expected to gradually decrease even when sunshine occurs during the day. Cooler air will begin to be felt in the mornings, while night temperatures may also gradually trend downward. In Purvanchal, these changes are likely to mark the beginning of cooler conditions.
Weather conditions during the monsoon withdrawal will also remain important for farmers in Uttar Pradesh. If rainfall occurs during the final week of September, standing crops could benefit from it, while heavy rain and thunderstorms could also create the possibility of localised damage. District-wise weather forecasts will therefore remain important, particularly in areas where harvesting or other agricultural activities are underway. Work schedules may need to be planned according to the rainfall forecast.
Weather conditions can also change rapidly in urban areas during the monsoon withdrawal. A decline in temperature after rainfall, followed by sunshine, could increase the difference between daytime and nighttime temperatures. Waterlogged areas may continue to face difficulties even after one or two rainfall events. Once rainfall activity ends completely, lower humidity is expected to reduce discomfort from heat.
The weather department does not declare the withdrawal of the southwest monsoon solely on the basis of a cessation of rainfall. The criteria include a sustained reduction in rainfall activity for five consecutive days, the establishment of an anticyclone in the lower troposphere and sufficient reduction in atmospheric moisture. Therefore, a few days of reduced rainfall in an area do not by themselves indicate that the monsoon has officially withdrawn.
For this reason, the possibility of complete monsoon withdrawal from Uttar Pradesh around October 10 is being treated as the current weather assessment. The actual withdrawal could occur earlier or later depending on weather conditions and the criteria prescribed by the IMD. Current weather developments indicate that the monsoon withdrawal from the country has begun and that the process will advance towards Uttar Pradesh in the coming days.
After the monsoon withdraws from Purvanchal, the change in weather conditions could gradually be felt in Varanasi, Ghazipur, Jaunpur, Azamgarh, Mau, Ballia, Chandauli, Sonbhadra and surrounding areas. However, the timing of the weather transition will not be the same in every district. The onset of cooler conditions could vary depending on local conditions, rainfall and temperatures.
At present, the monsoon withdrawal process and rainfall activity are continuing simultaneously in Uttar Pradesh. While the monsoon is retreating from the northwestern parts of the country, another spell of rain is possible in Uttar Pradesh during the final week of September. A warning for heavy rainfall and thunderstorms has also been issued for eastern Uttar Pradesh from September 24 to 27. Thereafter, weather conditions are expected to gradually become drier as the monsoon withdrawal progresses.
The monsoon is therefore likely to remain active in parts of Purvanchal for a few more days, but its withdrawal is approaching. Under the current assessment, the monsoon is expected to move beyond central Uttar Pradesh during the first week of October and could withdraw from Purvanchal and Uttar Pradesh through Sonbhadra around October 10. After that, atmospheric moisture is expected to decline, morning and evening coolness will gradually increase, and weather conditions will transition towards the autumn season.
